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Case Study One: Thunderstorm
Although Dice Games Properly Explained has an entire chapter on dice probability theory, most of the book offers descriptions and analyses of more than one hundred dice games.The games range from simple children's games to complex betting and bluffing games. Some of them are of Knizia's own design, but most of them are traditional games. Following are two simple game examples from Dice games Properly Explained that clearly illustrate the successful integration of chance into game play.
Thunderstorm
This is a popular family game in Germany, there called Gewitter. Hit the required target number, or watch the thunderstorm move close, until lightning finally strikes. Any numbers of players can participate, best with four to eight. You need six dice and a notepad. Object. The aim of the game is to produce at least one 1 on each turn to become the last remaining player in the game. Play. One player begins, then play progresses clockwise. The first player throws all six dice. Later players may have fewer dice available, even only one.
If your throw contains at least one 1, you are fine. Set aside all 1s and pass the remaining dice to the next player. If you roll nothing but 1s, recover all six dice and pass them to the next player.
If your throw does not contain any 1s, you fail and pass the dice to the next player. In the course of the game, a six-line house is drawn for each player. Each time you fail, a line is added to your house.When your house is complete and you fail again, your house is struck by lightning and you are out of the game.
The game continues until only one player remains. This player wins. [6]
Thunderstorm, like Chutes and Ladders, is a game of pure chance. The player makes no strategic or tactical decisions. However, it is an engaging game because the design choreographs meaningful choice and outcome on many levels. There is a wonderful translation of information from the die rolls to the drawing of the house. The diagrams offer a clear comparative record that displays the relative positions of the players in the game. Even though Thunderstorm is a game of pure chance, the kind of chance that a player faces changes from turn to turn. If you are rolling six dice, you have a relatively safe roll and are quite likely to roll a 1. On the other hand, if the previous player hands you just a single die, your chances of rolling a 1 are much lower. Initially, players are making relatively safe rolls, rolling many dice at once. Occasionally a player will get unlucky and miss rolling a 1, but chances are better than 50 percent that for the first few rolls with four, five, or six dice, they will roll a 1. As 1s appear and these dice are stripped away from the group of rolling dice, the tension mounts and the game accelerates as the chance for rolling a 1 decreases. A single die might be passed for quite some time without anyone rolling a 1. Then suddenly someone rolls a 1, avoids drawing a line on his or her house, and the next player begins the pattern again by rolling all six dice. As a player, you feel two ways about this progression. It is great to see the other players rolling a single die, not rolling 1s, and adding a line to their houses. On the other hand, as the die approaches you around the circle of players, you would love for another player to roll a 1 because it means that the next player rolls all six dice, making it likely that you will have more dice to roll on your turn. This formal structure of uncertainty results in a game with a compelling dramatic rhythm, which takes place in a number of overlapping cycles:
Every turn a player throws the dice, establishing a regular pace to the game.
On top of this rhythm, the reduction of the number of dice from six to one and then back to six again sets up a cycle that lasts for many turns and repeats itself a number of times within a single game.
Each player also sets up a linear progression of house-building. Although the elements of this construction occur in the same sequence for all players, it happens at a different pace for each player.
The fourth cycle happens near the end, as players begin to drop out of the game and the circle closes until there is only one house left standing, the house belonging to the winner.
The overall result is an exciting game with a sense of dramatic inevitability—the destruction of all of the houses but one becomes a dreadful certainty. What is striking about Thunderstorm (no pun intended) is that all of this complexity arises out of a simple game of pure chance—and no betting. Thunderstorm is an example of a game that provides players with a rich chance-based system that generates surprisingly meaningful play. [6]Knizia, Dice Games Properly Explained, p. 26–27.
